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As brackish turbid waters exit San Francisco Bay, one of the largest estuaries in the U.S. West Coast, they form the San Francisco Bay Plume (SFBP), which spreads offshore and influences the Gulf of the Farallones (GoF), an ecologically significant region in the California Current System that is also home to three National Marine Sanctuaries. This paper provides the first observationally based investigation of the spatio-temporal variability of the SFBP, using a plume tracking algorithm applied to more than two decades (2002-2023) of ocean color data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard satellites Aqua and Terra. The turbid SFBP spreads radially, extending 10-20 km offshore around 50% of the time, and during extreme discharge events (<1% of the time), the plume can reach nearly 60 km offshore to the shelf break. The greatest variability in frequency of plume occurrence was observed 10-20 km offshore and it was largely explained by the seasonal cycle (80% of total variance), linked primarily to seasonal changes in river discharge. Largest plume areas (determined by summing up all pixel areas weighted by their respective fraction of plume occurrence) were observed during winter and smallest during summer, occupying on average 24% and 1.5% of GoF area, respectively. Beyond 20-30 km offshore, variability in frequency of plume occurrence was dominated by the intraseasonal band (50-80% of total variance), attributed to plume response to synoptic wind-forcing and/or filaments and eddies, while the interannual band played a secondary role in the plume variability (<20% of total variance). Finally, a multivariable linear regression model of the turbid SFBP area was created to explore the potential predictability of the plume’s influence in the GoF. The model included the annual and semi-annual cycles and discharge anomalies (deseasoned and detrended), and despite its simplicity, it explained over 78% of total variance of the turbid SFBP area. Therefore, it could be a useful tool for scientists and stakeholders to better understand how management actions on freshwater supply can have consequences offshore beyond the Golden Gate and help guide future management decisions in this ecologically important region.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available August 8, 2026
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Accurate spectral identification of weathered plastics and analyses that provide insight into environmental degradation and age are desirable for source tracking and understanding hazards. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the kinetics of spectral changes for lab-weathered polymers and compare to spectra from environmental microplastics (MPs), and (2) assess the accuracy of spectral databases in identifying weathered polymers. For objective 1, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) fragments were exposed to simulated solar radiation in water for 90 days. FTIR spectra were collected periodically and degradation was quantified using carbonyl and hydroxyl bond indices. Significant linear increases in carbonyl indices for PP, but not PE, were observed as a function of exposure time. Spectra (via principal component analysis) and bond indices from lab-weathered polymers were then compared to environmental MPs collected from urban stormwater and the Delaware Bay estuary. Estuarine PP carbonyl and hydroxyl indices varied as a function of spectral collection mode (i.e., ATR vs. transmission) and by sampling site, potentially indicating the bond indices provide insight into sources/fate/transport of PP and are worthy of further study. In contrast, no significant differences were observed for PP in stormwater samples, possibly due to the close proximity of collection locations. PE exhibited non-linear trends in bond indices in the laboratory study and showed no significant association with sampling location in environmental samples, suggesting these indices may be less useful for PE degradation analysis. For objective 2, 14 different polymers, eight of which were polymer blends, were exposed to simulated solar radiation for up to 90 days, in dry and wet conditions. FTIR spectra were collected periodically and analyzed with two spectral identification software. OpenSpecy achieved an 88 % true positive rate compared to siMPle's 57 % at a 70 % hit quality threshold. Expanding reference libraries, to include weathered polymers and polymer blends, could improve spectral identification accuracy, and manual interpretation of FTIR spectra is recommended for low-confidence matches.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 1, 2026
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Shipboard and moored observations were conducted during Spring (Mar-Apr) 2022 in the Gulf of the Farallones, California, to study the interaction of the San Francisco Bay Plume with Pt. Reyes, a prominent cape. Two moorings were deployed, a “south mooring” and a “north mooring”, in the vicinity of Pt. Reyes, along the ~18m isobath. Both mooring contained a bottom mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, and conductivity-temperature probes (CTs) at 1 and 5 meters, and an additional CT at the south moooring at ~1 meter above the bottom. Shipboard transects using a Sea Science Acrobat, a towed platform equipped with a CTD, were conducted during the 13, 14 and 25 of March. All the metadata information necessary for the interpretation of the model outputs (dimensions, units, etc) is included inside the NetCDF files. The NetCDF files follow the CF conventions and can be opened with various software that are open source and freely available over the Internet.more » « less
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Abstract In classic models of the tidally averaged gravitationally driven estuarine circulation, denser salty oceanic water moves up the estuary near the bottom, while less dense riverine water flows toward the ocean near the surface. Traditionally, it is assumed that the associated pressure gradient forces and salt advection are balanced by vertical mixing. This study, however, demonstrates that lateral (across the estuary width) transport processes are essential for maintaining the estuarine circulation. This is because for realistic estuarine bathymetry, the depth-integrated salt transport up the estuary is enhanced in the deeper estuary channel. A closed salt budget then requires the lateral transport of this excess salt in the deeper channel toward the estuarine flanks. To understand how such lateral transport affects the estuarine salt and momentum balances, we devise an idealized model with explicit lateral transport focusing on tidally averaged lateral mixing effects. Solutions for the along-estuary velocity and salinity are nondimensionalized to depend only on one single nondimensional parameter, referred to as the Fischer number, which describes the relative importance of lateral to vertical tidal mixing. For relatively strong lateral tidal mixing (greater Fischer number), salinity and velocity variations are predominantly vertical. For relatively weak lateral tidal mixing (smaller Fischer number), salinity and velocity variations are predominantly lateral. Overall, lateral transport greatly affects the estuarine circulation and controls the estuarine salinity intrusion length, which is demonstrated to scale inversely with the Fischer number.more » « less
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Abstract In tidewater glacier fjords, subglacial discharge drives a significant mixing mechanism near glacier fronts and drives a strong exchange flow. Numerous studies (Cowton et al., 2015,https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jc010324; Slater et al., 2017,https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072374) have utilized a parameterization for buoyant plume theory to force fjord scales systems, but neglect to parameterize the outflowing of the plume away from the glacial wall after it has reached its neutral density. In this study, a new model framework, ROMS‐ICEPLUME, is developed to parameterize the rising and initial outflowing stage of subglacial discharge plumes in the Regional Ocean Modeling System. The coupled model applies a novel parameterization algorithm to prescribe the velocity and vertical extent of the outflowing plume, which reduces numerical instability and improves model performance. The model framework is tested with a quasi‐realistic forcing using observations of a subglacial discharge plume hydrographic surveys collected from a Greenland fjord. We find that the new model framework is able to reproduce the strong outflowing plume and the compensating inflow at depth, with a spatial structure that correlates well with in‐situ observations. On the other hand, the model framework without the new parameterization algorithm fails to capture the outflowing plume structure. Thus, our new framework for parameterizing subglacial discharge plumes is an improvement from previous coupled model frameworks, and is a promising tool toward advancing our understanding of circulation in tidewater glacier fjords.more » « less
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Abstract Buoyant material, such as floating debris, marine organisms, and spilled oil, is aggregated and trapped within estuaries. Traditionally, the aggregation of buoyant material is assumed to be a consequence of converging Eulerian surface currents, often associated with lateral (cross-estuary) density gradients that drive baroclinic lateral circulations. This study explores an alternative aggregation mechanism due to tidally driven Lagrangian residual circulations without Eulerian convergence zones and without lateral density variation. In a tidally driven estuary, the depth-dependent tidal phase of the lateral velocity varies across the estuary. This study demonstrates that the lateral movement of surface trapped material follows the tidal phase, resulting in a lateral Lagrangian residual circulation known as Stokes drift for small-amplitude motions. For steeper bathymetry, the lateral change in tidal phase is greater and the corresponding lateral Lagrangian residual flow faster. At local depth extrema, e.g., in the thalweg, depth does not vary laterally, so that the associated tidal phase is laterally constant. Therefore, the Stokes drift is weak near depth extrema resulting in Lagrangian convergence zones where buoyant material concentrates. These ideas are evaluated employing an idealized analytic model in which the along-estuary tidal flow is driven by an imposed barotropic pressure gradient, whereas cross-estuary flow is induced by the Coriolis force. Model results highlight that convergence zones due to Lagrangian residual velocities are efficient in forming persistent aggregation regions of buoyant material along the estuary. Significance Statement Our study focuses on the aggregation of buoyant material (e.g., debris, oil, organisms) in estuaries. Traditionally, the aggregation of buoyant material is assumed to be a consequence of converging Eulerian surface currents, often associated with lateral (cross-estuary) density gradients that drive baroclinic lateral circulations. Our study explores an alternative aggregation mechanism due to tidally driven Lagrangian residual circulations without Eulerian convergence zones and without lateral density variation. Our results highlight that convergence zones due to Lagrangian residual velocities are efficient in forming persistent aggregation regions of buoyant material along the estuary.more » « less
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Abstract. Offline particle tracking (OPT) is a widely used tool for theanalysis of data in oceanographic research. Given the output of ahydrodynamic model, OPT can provide answers to a wide variety of researchquestions involving fluid kinematics, zooplankton transport, the dispersionof pollutants, and the fate of chemical tracers, among others. In thispaper, we introduce ROMSPath, an OPT model designed to complement theRegional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Based on the Lagrangian TRANSport(LTRANS) model (North et al., 2008), ROMSPath is written in Fortran90 and provides advancements in functionality and efficiency compared toLTRANS. First, ROMSPath calculates particle trajectories using the ROMSnative grid, which provides advantages in interpolation, masking, andboundary interaction while improving accuracy. Second, ROMSPath enablessimulated particles to pass between nested ROMS grids, which is anincreasingly popular scheme to simulate the ocean over multiple scales.Third, the ROMSPath vertical turbulence module enables the turbulent(diffusion) time step and advection time step to be specified separately,adding flexibility and improving computational efficiency. Lastly, ROMSPathincludes new infrastructure which enables inputting of auxiliary parameters for addedfunctionality. In particular, Stokes drift can be input and added toparticle advection. Here we describe the details of these updates andperformance improvements.more » « less
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